Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Ukraine Civil War News Updates -- August 20, 2014


Ukraine Fight With Rebels Intensifies as Deaths Mount -- Bloomberg Businessweek

Ukraine’s armed forces said they continue to push back separatists in fighting in the country’s east before a possible meeting of the Russian and Ukrainian leaders next week.

Ukraine’s National Guard captured the city of Ilovaysk, leading rebels to counter-attack with tanks and artillery, the force said today on its website. Nine Ukrainian servicemen died and 22 were wounded in the past 24 hours, military spokesman Andriy Lysenko said in Kiev. He later told reporters government troops control a “significant” part of Luhansk, one of the main separatist strongholds. Thirty-four civilians were killed and 29 hurt in Donetsk, the other redoubt, in the past 24 hours, the regional administration said.

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Ukraine Civil War News Updates -- August 20, 2014

Fighting Rages in Eastern Ukraine Ahead of Meeting Between Putin and Poroshenko -- WSJ
Fighting in eastern Ukraine kills 43 in 24 hours -- AP
Dozens of residents die in Donetsk fighting -- Al Jazeera
Kiev shelling death toll on rise in southeast Ukraine -- ITAR-TASS
Street battles in eastern Ukraine town kill nine: ministry -- Reuters
9 Killed in Eastern Ukraine Violence -- VOA
Urban warfare as Ukraine forces move in on rebel strongholds -- Euronews
Ukraine conflict: Fierce battle for town of Ilovaisk -- BBC
Ukrainian govt troops take over much of Luhansk -- AP
Ukraine’s dying rebel capital seeks normal life against the soundscape of war -- AP
Underground life: E.Ukraine civilians pushed to basements by constant shelling (VIDEO) -- RT
Ukraine crisis: What does the footage tell us? -- BBC
Chart: Street Battles Rage In Luhansk - The Escalating Cost In Eastern Ukraine -- Forbes
Ukraine rebel movement faces uncertain future -- Reuters
The rebel leaders dropping out of the fight in eastern Ukraine -- The Guardian
ICRC team enters eastern Ukraine to smooth way for Russian convoy -- Reuters
Militia Reports Ukrainian Saboteurs Obstructing Path of Russian Humanitarian Convoy -- RIA Novosti
Russia Offers Ukrainian Refugees Chance for 'New Life' -- Naharnet
Moscow Invites European Officials to Visit Ukrainian Refugee Camps in Russia -- RIA Novosti
Ukraine conflict is draining economy, hampering reforms: PM Yatseniuk -- Reuters
Ukraine Asks for Combined IMF Loan Installment of $2.3Bln by Year-End -- RIA Novosti
Ukraine asks IMF to combine two aid tranches for total of $2.2 billion: IFX -- Reuters
Ukrainian parliament to ratify association agreement with EU in September — Poroshenko -- ITAR-TASS

5 comments:

Black Knight said...

Again the Ukrainian maps show a totally different story than the pro-separatist maps. http://cassad.net/?do=warmarker

Is Lugansk surrounded or not? Is Donetsk encircled? Do separatists or the Ukrainian army control the huge stretch of border with Russia in Lugansk oblast?

WNU, you seem to think Donetsk and Lugansk will fall. SO would you say the Bloomberg Ukrainian Ministry map is more realistic?

War News Updates Editor said...

The official Ukrainian maps of the conflict are not realistic .... but they do become real a few weeks later. I suspect that Kiev is projecting what they hope will happen with the forces that they have in the field right now .... not what is actually happening today.

Black Knight said...

So not to pin you down too much, but in your opinion no amount of semi-covert Russian aid is going to be able to hold the Ukrainians back? Nothing short of a negotiated settlement or full-blown Russian intervention will stop the defeat of the separatist forces in, say, the next month or so?

Rhaegar said...

Good questions Black Knight here is one of the pro-Seperatist maps: https://twitter.com/JPexsquaddie/status/502064380453064704/photo/1 its from a pro-seperatist twitter user from Canada. I think if this map is real then the seperatists might have a chance turning the tables. They can encircle the big pocket from Pervomaisk to gorklove and close the rear so the Ukrainian army cant get supplies, there is many encircelments the pro-Russians can pernhaps manage to accoplishe. This guy from twitter think that if things are going very well for the seperatists they can pernhaps bring battle to Sloviansk or Mariupol within 3 weeks. then they can pernhaps retake Sloviansk or try to take over Mariupol, but i am very unsure that is going to happen, also he wrote somthing about some sabotage groups in Sloviansk and Krasny Liman near Slovansk, are it true that there are locals who in small scale sabotages the Ukrainian army or is it just propaganda?

War News Updates Editor said...

There is little public support in Russia for an invasion of Ukraine. If they invade .... everyone knows that Russia will end paying for everything that gets broken and/or has been broken. Putin is aware of this sentiment .... that is why there has been no overt military action .... but threatening that in the event of a slaughter .... Russia will intervene.

Providing supplies to the rebels in a drip drip fashion has served Moscow well .... and I expect this to continue coupled with economic sanctions against Kiev. The goal is to have a negotiated settlement that recognizes the autonomous aspirations of many in eastern Ukraine .... this has always been the goal of Moscow .... and one that Kiev has been loathed to make.

My prediction still holds .... Ukraine will win the battle of the cities and they will drive the rebel leaders underground .... but a low level insurgency is what will take it's place .... and the drip drip of casualties and continuous warfare will continue until there is a negotiated settlement.